B-NOAA-Societal+Impacts

**__Overview - Group__**
The issue of climate change is not for the hippies. Climate change affects all of us, all around the globe. From America to Germany to China to Australia, everywhere. Nothing on this planet is immune to its effects, even us humans, who have the power to irradiate our little rock and render it inhospitable to life. Our society has been, is being, and always will be affected by our climate. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration not only observes day-to-day climate conditions, but slow moving trends, in order to better understand how our society will be affected by, and forced to adapt to, climate change. Our daily lives will change in our lifetime, even if we do make changes to reduce climate-altering activities, the question is how, and how much.

**__Air Stagnation: (Dana) __**
Air stagnation is becoming a growing problem. Stagnant air has many problematic results that range from reduced visibility to discomfort and even dangerous respiratory problems. Air stagnation allows pollution to stay in an area instead of moving away, causing ground level ozone to form. Pollution resulting from car exhaust and factory emissions present in the lower atmosphere are heated up; which create an increasing amount of ground level ozone. Ground level ozone is the most common pollutant present in the lower atmosphere during the warmer seasons. Ground level ozone contributes to these health problems. Stagnant air can result from slow moving high pressure systems. These high pressure systems support light to no wind as well as small amounts precipitation. Wind and precipitation are the most common weather factors able to reduce pollution in an area. Air stagnation only became a problem when pollution increased in amount. Air stagnation reports are taken everyday across the country because it is an increasing problem. Intellicast.com post daily reports of air stagnation:  This is today’s air stagnation report. As you can see, about half of the country is experiencing stagnant air, therefore affecting half of the country's air quality.(Intellicast.com, Air Stagnation, 02/26/13, [])

Reflection:
Personally, I believe that air stagnation is a very serious concern that most are not even aware of. The rising levels of pollution are blatantly obvious, but the causes are less widely known. Air stagnation was always common, the wind isn't always blowing. But when pollution levels began rising air stagnation became increasingly more problematic. We rely on precipitation and wind to drive the pollution out of an area. Without it, we are stuck breathing our own waste. I found it interesting that ozone is described as biologically corrosive. It damages living things. And we are the reason there's more and more amounts of it found. It's self-destruction. What are we going to do when levels become toxic? According to the graph, air is stagnant in more than half of the country. So more than half the country will have less than perfect air quality. No wonder there are more children being born with symptoms of asthma.

 Interview:
Kathleen Jordan, a nurse, has allowed me to question her about the effects of air pollution and ground level ozone.

DJ: Have you ever heard of a patient suffering directly because of high levels of ground level ozone?

KJ: Yes I have. Typically, when ground level ozone is higher during the summer months, emergency room visits increase as well as telephone calls to nurse advice lines.

DJ: Have you ever had experience working with a patient who was suffering from stagnant air and pollution?

KJ: I have. A five-year old pediatric patient, during a dance recital, was exposed to the dusty velvet curtains while breathing heavy because of the workout. She went outside and the breathing got worse. It was warm outside and the air quality was not the best. Eventually she was unable to breathe. She was transported to the ER, where she was treated for inflammation of the lining of the lungs. Later that night, she was released. DJ: Do you have any advice for how to prevent respiratory damage from air pollution? KJ: Stay indoors whenever possible if the air pollution index is high. I discourage smoking or other inhalants which would also irritate the linings of the lungs. I also highly recommend NOT jogging or exercising near a busy street. Car exhaust and other unhealthy emissions are present while you are breathing heavily. The effects can result in an irritation to the lungs causing temporary or even permanent lung damage.

DJ: Do you think the incidents of asthma has increased over the last 10 years? <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">KJ: Most definitely! Asthma is considered one of the more common childhood illnesses where only a few years ago it was not as common.

<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Video:
These are the affects of bad air quality in general. But to relate it to the world at large, Beijing, which now is host to over a billion residents experiences bad air quality at its worst. Here is a short news clip of a particularly bad day in Beijing: []

**__Crop Moisture Stress Index__ (Abel)**
The Crop Moisture Stress Index is a dataset created by NOAA at the National Climatic Data Center. The index measures the effect of “catastrophic”(#) moisture conditions for crops (meaning either scarcity of water or overabundance that effects the yield of crops). The index is created using both the Palmer Z index and the different US climate regions. If stress is high, this affects crop growth cycles, and this stress is most devastating in climate areas with high crop yield stemming from non-irrigated farming. The Palmer Z index, and the average crop yields in their specific climate region from years 1970-2000 are used to estimate the effect on crop yield, and therefore creating the Crop Moisture Stress Index. The following graphs are visual illustrations of the Crop Moisture Stress Index: Although the graphs are for corn and soybean crops (the index is calculated for each crop because different crops are more or less tolerant to stress than others), they are still good representations of crop stress because of the prevalence of these in agriculture. The maps in the top right corner are illustrations of non-irrigated productivity of their associated crops in the 1990s. Non irrigated crops are the most susceptible to moisture stress in affecting yields. The next map is a visual representation of the Palmer-Z index, which illustrates the amount of moisture stress and where it is located geographically. When the data is compared to the non-irrigated yield maps, we can get a measure of the overall impact and severity of moisture stress on national crop yields. When we consider that we are in the worst drought our country has experienced in over half a century, the current high levels of stress are unsurprising. Reflection: Even though our chapter is titled Societal Impacts of Climate Change, it still strikes me at how much of an impact climate change is having, and how directly measurable it is both to scientists and the general public. The Crop Moisture Stress Index chows levels of stress unseen since the Dust Bowl. The only reason that we are not experiencing massive starvation or economic shutdown is because of our modern technology, globalized economy, and our domestic economic system. It is worrying, however, because there is a breaking point at which society can no longer cope with these changes, and we are not changing our activities enough to prevent this catastrophe. If it is this bad already, how much worse will it be?

__**US** **Wind Climatology (Allie)**__
Wind climatology uses NCEP to reanalyze wind data based off of observed conditions. Then you can use a physical model to look for any gaps between stations and time steps. The U.S. energy department was using the NCEP so they could outline a plan so that by 2030 at least 20 percent of our electricity would be from wind. U-winds are winds from east to west, while V-winds are winds from north and south. Since the wind speed isn’t constant from month to month NCEP data helps us to better understand long term trends. NCEP- National Centers for Environmental Prediction These images show both U and V winds for January of 2013. The colors indicate the wind speed by meters per second. Starting with white at 1.0 meters per second going all the way to deep purple at 8.0 meters per second. These two sections I did in my opinion are interrelated because they talk about how the wind affects the amount of energy we use. I believe that it would be neat if our grandchildren and future generations to have some of their energy run off the wind. What I will do is unplug my electronics more often and make sure that my family unplug any electronics that are not necessary. AT = -2.7 + 1.04*T + 2.0*e -0.65*Where AT (apparent temperature ) and T (air temperature) are deg-C, e is vapor pressure in kPa and v is 10m wind speed in m/sec.
 * Self Reflection**
 * Apparent Temperature-Nate**

__**Convective Sigments: (Dana)**__
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Convective Sigments (a.k.a CSIGs) are weather advisories pertaining to hazardous convective1 weather patterns significant to the security of all aircrafts. Convective Sigments are text bulletins routinely issued to aircraft pilots every 55 minutes by NOAA's2 Aviation Weather Center. The exception is a non-routine issuance; these are distributed when hazardous weather develops quickly. At the end of each month, the NCDC3 compiles all the reports of Convective Sigments; they then figure out how many Convective Sigments were reported during that month. To base the approximate location, the US and its surrounding waters are separated into latitude and longitude coordinates that are 8km/8km. The NCDC then measures how many Convective Sigments were reported in each area. Throughout the last 15 – 20 years, the number of Convective Sigments reported have been increasing. It is unclear whether this increase could be attributed to global warming4 and changing weather patters or improvements in meteorology5 technology. But whatever the case, changing weather patterns are occurring and Convective Sigments are being reported more and more often. The safety of aircraft pilots are being challenged on a daily basis throughout the globe.

<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The Slemmer and Silberberg (2004) project recorded the CSIG reports each month over a 10-year period. This is a map of the highest CSIG frequency recorded during the project:

<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"> If you notice, a good portion of the country is colored purple. The color purple can range anywhere from 21 - 23 hits for convective sigment reports. ([|www.ncdc.noaa.gov], Convective Sigments, 09/04/12, [])

<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Reflection:
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Personally, I believe the increase in Convective Sigment reports are caused by global warming. The Earth is being heated which causes wind patterns and ocean currents to be affected. Small changes in any climate results in drastic weather change. For instance, because of global warming, the Arctic and Antarctic are being warmed. The glaciers frozen there for centuries are now melting, causing a rise in ocean levels. This also changes the salt content, the water frozen in glaciers is fresh. A changes in the oceans' temperature also occurs, changing ocean currents. Another example would be the wind patterns. Wind patterns are affected by Earth's uneven temperature. If the temperature is increasing, then the direction and intensity of some wind patterns will be affected. The ocean and the wind are huge factors of weather and climate. The warmer it gets, the more water that is able to be evaporated. The wind will push the rain storm across the ocean, gathering more water, eventually causing a massive storm worthy of a CSIG. I also believe that increased weather advisories will temporarily allow us to ignore the problem of global warming... at least until hazardous weather is common and flying will be an impossibility.

__**Northeast Index to Potential Ozone (Abel)**__
<span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">The Northeast Index to Potential Ozone is a set of data compiled by the NRCC. The purpose of this data is to roughly predict ozone levels in the atmosphere. For the Northeast Index, data is taken from over 400 locations telling ozone levels and temperature. These two sets are compared, and temperature averages are then used to predict the amount of ozone that is present in the region. According to the EPA "Breathing ozone can trigger a variety of health problems including chest pain, coughing, throat irritation, and congestion. It can worsen bronchitis,emphysema, and asthma. Ground level ozone also can reduce lung function and inflame the linings of the lungs. Repeated exposure may permanently scar lung tissue." <span style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">Reflection: I wasn’t surprised when I saw that ozone concentrations in the northeast spiked in the 1950s. The spike may have been caused by weather conditions coupled with economic growth. While the levels are trending higher these days, I think that they have remained moderately stable because of new laws and regulations.

__**Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index (Allie)**__
The REDTI looks at the populations heating and cooling fluctuations for year to year energy demand fluctuations. REDTI looks at the seasonal fluctuations as well as the year to year fluctuations. Depending on how hot or cold it is out side determines on the heating and cooling fluctuations. The energy consumption rates are no lower then 0.70 and can be as high as 0.86. National residential energy consumption values are available from 1973-2000/01. The later half of the 1970's data was omitted from analysis because it was such a dramatic change in energy conservation methods, high energy prices, and changing demand patterns. Increasing trends in residential energy consumption in 1980 were removed because linearly detrended the energy consumption rate prior to the correlation analysis.

Source 6 was used.


 * West Nile** **Mosquito Crossover Dates-Nate**

**__Vocabulary Index__**

 * NCDC**: the National Climatic Data Center is an archive of climatic data from almost every public source, it is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.


 * Moisture Stress**: In the context of plants, either too much or not enough available moisture.


 * NRCC: Northeast Regional Climate Center**: monitors climate conditions in the Northeastern US region.


 * Stagnation**: the state or condition of having stopped, as by ceasing to run or flow


 * Respiratory**: pertaining to or serving for respiration


 * Pollution**: the introduction of harmful substances or products into the environment


 * Ozone**: a powerful oxidizing agent which is biologically corrosive and can be found in minute quantities in the atmosphere
 * Emission**: an act or instance of emitting
 * Precipitation**: the act of precipitating; state of being precipitated
 * Convective**: weather significant to the safety of all aircraft
 * NOAA**: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
 * NCDC**: National Climatic Data Center


 * Global Warming**: A gradual increase in the overall temperature of the earth's atmosphere generally attributed to the greenhouse effect caused by increased levels of carbon dioxide, CFCs, and other pollutants
 * Meteorology**: the science dealing with the atmosphere and its phenomena, including weather and climate
 * Omitted:** Taken out / removed

**__Works Cited__**
1.) National Climatic Data Center, Crop Moisture Stress Index, 9/4/12 [] 2.) Northeast Regional Climate Center, Northeast Ozone Potential Index [] 3.) Environmental Protection Agency, Health Effects of Ground Level Ozone [] 4.) National Climatic Data Center, US Wind Climatology [] 5.) NCDC, Societal Impacts of Climate Change, [] 6.)NCDC, Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index, []